Evaluate the Current State of the Economy Essay Example for Free

Evaluate the Current State of the Economy Essay Labor market conditions are important especially for the following categories, businesses, individuals, and governments. The nation’s labor market conditions are constantly monitored by statistical analysis, unemployment rate being the primary metric. In April of 2014, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% percent to 6.3% percent (Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 2014), which was the lowest rate since September of 2008. Since January the unemployment rate had been somewhat flat, but in April 2014 it dropped. However in April, the labor force additionally dropped by 806,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2014) meaning the current ratio drop from 6. 7% to 6.3% comparatively remains approximately the same as the constant trend. In other words, because of the decrease in workforce, the drop in unemployment may be partially a result of the decrease in workforce. The consistent level of unemployment makes shifts on AD and AS curve minor. When unemployment decreases, as it did in April, a correlation linking the drop in unemployment to an increased demand of goods and services can be made. This increased demand requires the productivity of companies to increase to meet the supply deficit, creating more jobs for individuals. With a greater demand for goods and services, there is a greater need for people to produce them, therefore a decrease in unemployment. Additionally, the decrease in unemployment means household income will improve, providing them with more disposable income. As noted above, because of the increase in demand (seen in the decline in the unemployment rate), a direct correlation can be made to an increase in supply, though delayed. The increase in supply increases the number of new employees as employers look to meet the demand for goods and services, shifting the AS  curve to the right as well. In most cases unemployment remains constant, but in US, the high unemployment rate (compared to the past) can have a negative effect on the economy. The steady unemployment rate can reduce the supply of labor in the economy, as unemployed people become discouraged and stop looking for jobs. This would shift the aggregate supply curve to the left. Also employers may use the threat of unemployment to cut wages, exploiting their workers. Expectations The great intangible factor directly affecting the economy currently is people’s expectations for future economic growth. These economic expectations influence the economy greatly. If businesses and households are more optimistic about the future of the economy, they are more likely to buy large items and make new investments, increasing the aggregate demand. The AD can change in a variety of ways. Peoples expectations causes them to spend less or be forced to cut spending, it causes the government to cut its spending, and it causes businesses to be more money conscious when choosing what their investment in goods will be from other companies. As a gauge, many people look at the gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, which grew at a 0.1% annual pace in the first quarter of 2014 (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2014). This is slow growth compared to recent annual rates of 2% to 3% (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2014). Many think the slowdown was caused by the long winter felt throughout the country. These slow growth rates shift both the AD and AS curves to the left, as consumers and business feel the affect or people’s â€Å"wait and see† attitude in economy. Assuming this is all weather based, the economy should bounce as household moral improves with the warmer spring and summer weather. Consumer expectations are also reflected in their spending. Consumer spending rose 0.3 percent last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2 percent in January (Mutikani, Lucia, March 2014), positive for now, but on a larger scale reports show the slowdown in real GDP growth is reflected in the downturn in exports. The exports of industrial supplies and materials as well as foods, feeds, and beverages  declined after increasing in the fourth quarter of 2013. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2014). Additionally, imports have also declined by 0.4 percent in April, after increasing 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2014 (Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2014). The April drop was the first monthly decrease since the index fell 0.9 percent in November 2013 (Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2014). Import prices also fell 0.3 percent over the past 12 months and have not recorded a year-over-year advance since the index increased 0.9 percent from July 2012 to July 2013 (Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2014). There drops in the US economy are felt in the household sector through the implementation of monetary and physical policy which are used to combat economic declines which directly affect consumer’s expectation and spending habits. Consumer Income As mentioned above, consumers are still buying things. Consumer spending continues to be a bright spot, growing at a 3% annual pace. (Mutikani, Lucia, March 2014). This occurred even though prices of goods and services bought by U.S. residents rose 1.4 percent in the first quarter, after rising 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. Both energy prices and food prices turned up. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter after rising 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2014). This illustrates the shift in AD tow the right. Meaning consumers are willing to pay higher prices at current production rates. The increase in consumables indicates consumers have more disposable income to spend on goods and services, and they are not choosing to save. Personal income and personal saving statistic showing that personal income adjusted for inflation and taxes increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (Mutikani, Lucia, March 2014). Incomes also rose 0.3 percent last month after rising by the same margin in January. Additionally, inflation has remained low. Combining  these factors, consumer spending, price increases, low inflation, increased personal income, will inevitably be forecasted by business as indicators to increase production. Increased production also increase supply, shifting AS to the right as business attempt to meet consumer demand. Interest Rates Interest rates in the United States are the lowest they have been in years. This indicates the policy and stance taken by the government for lending money. The government is trying to entice consumers to file for loans as well as encourage banks to lend and approve loans. With interest rates this low and consumer income increasing, one would expect consumers to increase their buying of more significant items. The aggregate demand curve shows, at various price levels, the quantity of goods and services produced domestically that consumers, businesses, and governments are willing to purchase. The increase in demand for low interest loans would shift the AD curve as a shift to the right. Domestically, the Federal Reserve expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode, hoping to get a clearer picture of U.S.’s future economic strength (Kurtz, Annalyn, April 2014). Moreover, the Federal Reserve has been buying bonds to stimulate the U.S. economy on and off since 2008, but the central bank is now gradually bringing that program to an end. The withdrawal process is expected to reduce bond purchases to around $45 billion a month (Kurtz, Annalyn, April 2014), and this process potentially will shift the nations monetary policy to focus more on interest rates rather than adjustments to the monetary base. These changes to the interest rates will impact capital goods decisions made by consumers and by businesses. Lower interest rates will lower the costs of major products, such as houses, and will increase business capital project spending because of the reduction in long-term investment costs. Such changes will move the aggregate demand curve will down and to the right. But, in the event of an interest rate hike, the higher real interest rates  will make capital goods relatively more expensive and cause the aggregate demand curve to shift up and to the left. Recommendations America’s recent financial crisis and the anticipated future economic outlook can be traced back to 2007 when the U.S. housing bubble burst. The bank failures created a dominos affect, creating an economic meltdown in all sectors of the US economy. Despite government attempts to help the situation, the economy has slowed and has slipped in and out of recession. As a result, the current government policies have not been effective, creating hesitations in consumer spending. Since 2008, the actions taken by the Federal Reserve have put the U.S.’s economy in jeopardy. To stem the economic slide of the U.S. housing collapse, the Federal Reserve has printed off trillions of dollars and has increased government spending in the economy hoping the influx of cash will jump start economic activity. But is has had an inverse affect. This dilution of the monetary base has diluted the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) domestically and internationally and has caused concern of consumer spending in the loanable funds market. Consumer spending is a 69% of the US GDP (The World Bank, 2013). An increase in spending would stimulate additional demand for products. With an increase in demand, business would increase productivity resulting in an improved GDP and lower unemployment. Additionally, in 2014 one of the greatest uses of a consumer’s income is to pay health care costs. The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that the increase in health care costs was driven primarily by the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. Removing the Affordable Health Care Act will improve consumer spending, as their disposable income percentage will increase. When the financial crisis began in 2008, the U.S. national debt stood approximately at $10 trillion. Based on the US Treasuries own figures, the national debt will reach be close to $20.0 trillion by the end of this decade (US Treasury Department – Treasury Direct, 2014), greater than our nation’s GDP. Reducing government  debt takes a long time, especially with the current international influences (China, Japan, EU). A fiscal policy to increased taxes and reduced government spending would be a place to start. Additionally, a reduction in monetary base will again, strengthen the USD internationally, helping facilitate and increase import/exports. Part 2: Evaluation of Recommendations Keynesian Perspective: Based upon the thorough analysis completed above, the Keynesian model is an appropriate mechanism for stimulating an economy that is growing but at a much slower rate than what is typical during a period of economic expansion. After a couple of years of substantive growth, the numbers for the first quarter of 2014 showed a GDP increase of just 0.1%. While the unemployment numbers continue to show a decline. While stubbornly remaining at 6.7% nationally through April, the most recent numbers show significant decline to 6.3%. The mortgage interest rates fell recently to 4.29% as the housing market has slowed down recently. While the Fed is beginning to slow down buying treasury bonds, it will continue to keep interest rates low until all signs point to GDP growth returning to a normal rate of 3.28% annually. Those numbers are indicative of annual GDP growth rates from 1948 to 2009. The first quarter of 2009 saw the economy shrink by nearly 5% following the market collapse and the bank bailouts just before President Obama took office. Subsequently, the bailout of GM and Chrysler in 2009 also impacted the economy as well, but was necessary to save the industry and jobs in Detroit and elsewhere for parts manufacturers and suppliers. The risk of course was the loss of more than a million jobs, but in the end the loss was $10.5 billion in taxpayer money not repaid by GM. Classical Macroeconomic theory assumes that market conditions will sort themselves out, but the confluence of catastrophic economic issues such as: the real estate market collapse, bank insolvency, the stock market collapse and the auto industry bailouts meant looking at long-term solutions would  not provide the confidence in the markets and consumers alike. Short-term or stop gap measures needed to stem the downward spiral to depression and economic contraction were and are required to right the economic ship. Keynesian economic theory is more prone to acceptance of government stimulus as it relied on government spending during economic downturns. They Keynesians believe that the economy is made up of consumer spending, business investment and government spending and because of this, Fed monetary policy adjustments should be made to promote banks to make loans, businesses to invest in growth and expansion and consumers to have more buying power due to lower interest rates. When consumer spending is decreasing, the Keynesian theory believes that the government spending can help with economic growth. The current course of action taken by the Fed and the President should be continued for the foreseeable future until economic conditions stabilize back to the norms over the last 60-plus years. Once GDP growth returns to expansionist highs and inflation begins to rise, there may be a need to take corrective action again to slow the economy down, but for now that is not an issue. Since economic growth is lacking, government intervention is needed to help regulate and jumpstart the economy. This will allow banks to lend more, businesses to invest more and households to spend more. It is crucial for these three entities to do as such since it will help the economy grow and progress. Classical Perspective: A portion of the AS curve that is almost vertical is associated with a real GDP rate that fully employs a nation’s resources. At a rate of output, the nation has reached the limitation of its short run capacity, so an attempt to increase employment or output beyond this rat would result only in a higher aver price level. The theory is built on the fact that in the long run, a nations move gradually and automatically moves toward full employment. This inexorable like movement toward full employment is the  result of supply and demand forces that cause prices (wages, interest rates, and exchange rates) to adjust so that markets clear. And after enough time, the market will settle the supply and demand in all markets, and thereby eliminate any imbalances, such as employment. Since many classical economists do not believe that government spending gives power to the public sector and decreasing the private sector, they do not fully agree with too much government spending as it ex ploits a lot of economic resources. Example: â€Å"Suppose a nation had excessive unemployment. Classical economist would agree that a major cause of the unemployment was an average real wage rate that was above equilibrium. At this wage rate the amount of labor supplied exceeds the amount demanded, resulting in unemployment. The excessive supply of labor would put downward pressure on real wages. Falling real wages would then have two reinforcing affects that acted simultaneously to bring the labor market back into equilibrium. First, lower real wages would increase the incentive for businesses to hire workers; second, they would reduce the number of individuals in the workforce. For instance, instead of looking for work, some individuals might stay in school or remain homemakers. If real wages fell the amount of labor supplied would equal the amount demanded and unemployment would be solved.† (Marthinsen, John E. (2007)) The classical perspective emphasizes on the belief that government spending is detrimental to the economy and that the market itself is self-sufficient and can automatically adjust to increases and decrease of employment, consumer spending, business investment and so on. The current government policies have not been effective and when looking at it from this classical perspective, it might be necessary for the government to step back and let the mark equilibrate itself. References: Bureau of Labor Statistics. (April 2014), U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm Bureau of Labor Statistics. (May 2014), Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Retrieved from http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 Conerly, Bill (2014) Economic Forecast 2014-2015: Looking Better With Help From Oil And Gas Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2014/01/22/economic-forecast-2014-2015-looking-better-with-help-from-oil-and-gas/ Congressional Budget Office, (February 2014). The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 Retrieved from http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010 Kurtz, Annalyn, (April 2014). U.S. Economy Slows to Stall-Speed Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/30/investing/gdp-economy Marthinsen, John E. (2007) Managing in a Global Economy: Demystifying International Macroeconomics. Mason, OH: Thomas Southwestern Mutikani, Lucia (March 2014). U.S. consumers lift spending, but sentiment slips. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/us-usa-economy-idUSBREA2R0UB20140328 The World Bank. (2013). Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PETC.ZS U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, (April 2014). National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (advance estimate). Retrieved from https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm US Treasury Department – Treasury Direct, (2014). Historical Debt Outstanding Annual 2000 – 2012 Retrieved from http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm

Bell Jar summary :: essays papers

Bell Jar summary Many have paralleled Sylvia Plath’s novel, The Bell Jar, to her very own life. Plath is known for her tormented life of constant depression and disappointments, causing her to end her life early at the young age of 30. The time frame in which the book is in matches the times when she is enlisted in many mental institutes and ultimately her suicide. The story of Esther Greenwood also tells the feelings and emotions of Sylvia Plath. Other characters in the novel are said to be in relation to characters in the author’s life. The novel begins where Esther is just about halfway through her job as Mademoiselle, a fashion magazine. She and many other girls received this opportunity because of their exceptional writing abilities. Even though this she had waited for this chance for a year, she is actually disappointed because she had expected more from the other prizewinners. â€Å"These girls looked awfully bored to me. I saw them on the roof yawning and painting their nails and trying to keep their Bermuda tans, and they seemed bored as hell... Girls like that make me sick.† (Pg. 4) A couple other unfortunate events also led her to be depressed at her stay in the hotel. At a dinner gathering, Esther ate a lot of crabmeat that happened to be poisoned. She passes out and awakes in her room. Her recovery is slow and agonizing. Another social event causes yet again another mishap. Doreen, Esther best friend there, sets Esther up with a friend of Doreen’s boyfriend to go to a party. There, the bli nd date attempts to sexually assault, but Esther resists and walks away with her dignity. After returning to the hotel, Esther takes no care of the assault and just carries on. Later, she finds out that her on and off boyfriend, Buddy Willard, is actually not a virgin. â€Å"At first I thought he must have slept with the waitress only that once, but when I asked how many times, just to make sure, he said he couldn’t remember but a couple of times a week for the rest for the summer.† Knowing this, she thought it to be okay if she were to have an affair also. On a date with Constantin, he invites her to his room, but to her dismay, nothing happens.

Turkey’s Retailing Sector Analysis

RETAILING INDUSTRY in terms of Food- Non Food * Sectorial Overview; Retailing is the business activity that involves selling products/services to customers for their non-commercial, individual or family use. Normally, retailing is the final stage of the distribution process. The middle and long term potential of Turkey retail industry continue remaining attractive. Companies in sector support the sectorial expansion with their expansion strategies, negative business administration fund and powerful cash creating capabilities.The defensive structure of sector and low penetration strengthen this situation. With the increase in consumer demand, rapid urbanization, increase in large scale retail investments the number of shopping malls in Turkey increased by more than 20% in the last two years. In the same period, the total surface rent area in Turkey increased by more than 30% and reached As it can be seen on the graph below; the total size of the retail sector (organized and unorganize d) in Turkey is expected to reach $355 billion in 2013 and grow with 10% until 2016. (See Figure 1 in Appendix)Organized retail, a highly promising segment due to increasing per capita consumer spending and relatively weaker presence up to now in comparison with developed markets, is estimated to be 40% of the total retail industry in Turkey. (See Figure 2 and Figure 3 in Appendix) * The share of organized retail continue increasing; The share of organized retail which has the level of %25 in the total retail market in 2000 exceeds the levels of %50 according to the 2013 predictions. Turkey organized retail market achieve an impressive growth in last 10 years.It is anticipated that the share of organized retailers increase from the level %47 to the level %60 in upcoming 5 years. It is anticipated that the share of organized retail increases to the level of %60 till 2015. While the food retail segment constitute more than half of total retail market, traditional structure such as loc al markets and groceries still dominates the market. It is expected that approximate number of 10. 000 organized retail store will be twofold in 5-6 years. Besides, it is predicted that the number of groceries will be regress from 150. 00 to 100. 000 at the same period. Turkey, with its 105 milliard dollars sales figure, is located in 6th line in Europe retail sector. Nevertheless, while the total share of 5 biggest players in Europe is approximately %50, it is %20 in Turkey. Organized Retail Sector is the fastest expanding canal discount merchandising. It is expected that the number of approximately 6. 000 discount stores in Turkey will be twofold in upcoming 4 or 5 years. With the support of increase in the income per capita, %12 growth is anticipated in retail sector between 2009 and 2015.The discount store chain in Turkey (such as A101, SOK, BIM, DIASA) have a very fast growth schedules. BIM is placed in the first row in discount merchandising with its large store quantity. The company is planning to open 300 or 350 new stores every year. The fast increase in store quantities supports scale economy and companies are able to pull down their sale prices thanks to the decline in costs. With the effect of increasing competition in sector, it is expected that the growth accelerate with purchasing in forthcoming years. Despite the high competition, the retail sector is enlarging expeditiously; 6 major organized food retailing brand constitute %37 of total market in spite of divided structure. It is expected that it will be inorganic growth, merchandising and reunions, thus the companies will achieve more competitive charges by increasing their purchasing power in 2013 and later on with the intensity of competition. 2 Major Retailing Companies in the Sector; MIGROS vs BIM BIM and MIGROS which are the prominent players of Turkey food retail sector, are analyzed in this assignment in terms of their financial analysis.In retailing sector, these 2 companies have a gr eat effect and they are known as most powerful competitors with their shares all over the industry. Migros has 6% and BIM has 9% industry shares. (See Figure 4 in the Appendix) 1) BIM BIM (Birlesik Magazalar A. S. ) adopts as a principle the supply of the highest quality basic foodstuff to consumers, at the best possible prices. BIM began its operations in 1995 with 21 stores and in line with this principle. BIM’s product portfolio comprises around 600 products. 44. 12% of BIM shares started to be traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange in 15 July 2005.BIM is the first representative of high level discount model in Turkey and the company got in stock market return for its rapid growth. While BIM finishes its 7th year in stock market, it became the 12th company that has highest market value of Turkey. * Board of Directors Mustafa Latif TopbasChairman of the Executive Committee Ekrem PakdemirliVice Chairman of the Board Mahmud MeraliBoard member and has chaired the Audit Committee Jo s SimonsBoard member and consultant. Omer Hulusi TopbasBoard member. Yalc? n OnerBoard member. Dr. Zeki Ziya SozenBoard member. Turnover doubled to six; The rapid growth of the company had an effect on the rise of BIM , whose capital’s 17,43 per cent belongs to Mustafa Latif Topbas, in stock market. (See Table 1; Structure of BIM’s Shareholders) BIM ‘s sales revenues were 1. 4 billion TL . In the end of 2011, this revenues reached to 8. 2 billion TL. Also, the personnel number of the company increased approximately 3 times in 7 years. In the end of 2010, BIM became the endorsement leader with 6. 5 billion TL in the retailing sector of Turkey and it maintained this position in 2011.As abroad, while the company increases the number of stores in Morocco, aims Egypt for the next year. This year, BIM also started to operate in mobile communication industry with the name of BIMCELL. * Growth Strategy; Aggressive Growth among the competitor companies that strength After 11% increase in number of stores in 2011, with the number of 3. 584 stores in 2012, BIM is the retailer that has the largest store network in Turkey. (See Figure 5; Number of Stores ) BIM plans to open 400 new stores in 2013 and reach 5. 500 stores in 2015.With the store numbers increases there also has been 14% increase in number of employees in the company in 2011. BIM has been expanding their business, operations in every part. (See Figure 6; Number of Employees) These increases in operation side lead to an increase in number of average daily customers with 14% in 2011. (See Figure 7; Average number of Daily Customers) Of course with these changes, company carried out a 25 percent net sales increase over the industry average in 2011 and 2012. (See Figure 8; Sales and Gross Profit Margin) It is estimated that a sales increase over 20 per cent in 2013.Depending on this net sales growth, Company’s net profit has been increased by 22% over the last three years. Due to the inc rease in net sales; margin values regarding net profit, gross profit, EBIT, EBITDA have been decreased over 3 years. (See Figure 9; Net Profit and Net Profit Margin) With the effect of net sales increase, EBIT has been increased to 347,5 in 2011 ( See Figure 10; EBIT and EBIT margin) These was a 19%increase in company’s EBITDA and this means that there is an increase in amortization so we can say that company increased their asset purchases as we can see on the related figure. See Figure 11; EBITDA and EBITDA margin) * 18 times has been increased in 7 years; BIM began to be traded with 672. 9 million TL of market value in July, 2005. The value of the company increased approximately 18 times in 7 years based on TL. The increase in BIM stocks since the first trading day was 1. 861 per cent. As a result of its rapid growth, BIM’s market value is the over of the Erdemir, Arcelik, Ford Otosan, Finansbank and Vak? fbank in addition to Tupras that is the Turkey's largest indu strial enterprise and refinery giant.Also, BIM has paid its shareholders a total dividend of 700 million TL in the period of 7 years in the stock market. (See Figure 12; BIM Dividend Payment over the last 5 years). As the company’s profit increased dividend payments are increased also. There has been a positive relationship between them. This is a very good indicator for the company’s investors who already invested in BIM’s shares and who are planning to invest. Also as a result of the increase in BIM’s stock prices and stock revenues; value of the company also increased. So, this situation put the company's principal shareholder, Mustafa Latif Topbas, to the Forbes list. On the other hand, for each stock BIM has really high returns and it brings some important risks also for the investors. (See Figure 13; IMKB 100 vs. BIM Stocks) When we compare the situation of BIM’s stocks in Imkb 100 with stocks of MIGROS, BIM has a higher return, profit for th e investors and because the returns and prices of BIM higher than IMKB 100 and because there is a really important difference between the line according to Figure, BIM’s stocks are also operated and valued in IMKB 30. Why is it rising? * The rapid growth in the number of stores and endorsement. * The high capacity of dividend payment.. * Increasing profitability of the company every year. * To expand abroad with Morocco. * To bring new revenues with BIMCELL. *3/4 of the shares in stock market is belonged to foreigners. * Growth Targets in Egypt after Morocco: BIM will open stores in Egypt by 2013. The company estimates that the growth in Egypt will be faster compared to the growth in Morocco. Recently, BIM operates in Morocco with 103 stores.And the company plans to open 50 new stores in Egypt every year after 2013. 2)MIGROS Originally established in Turkey in 1954 as a collaboration of the Swiss-based Migros Cooperatives Society and the Istanbul municipality, Migros’s primary mission was to supply economically priced groceries and household supplies to consumers in Istanbul under wholesome conditions. In 1975 the Koc Group acquired a majority stake in the company, following which there was a steady increase in both number of its stores and its brand value for more than a decade.In 1991, Migros became the first publicly traded company in retail. Following a Koc Group strategic decision to pull out of grocery retailing, in February 2008 Koc Holding signed an agreement to sell its 50. 83% stake in Migros to Moonlight Perakendecilik. Transfer of the shares took place on May 30th of the same year. On 30 April 2009, Moonlight Perakendecilik (now known as Migros Ticaret A. S. ) and Migros Turk T. A. S. were merged into a single company which has since been operating under the name â€Å"Migros Ticaret † and whose principal shareholder is MH Perakendecilik ve Ticaret A. S.In 2005 Migros further bolstered its leadership of Turkey’s food ret ailing sector with its acquisition of Tansas, another national chain As of end-2011 Migros was operating through a total of 745 national and international locations. With a national presence in all seven of Turkey’s geographical regions taking the form of 262 â€Å"M†, 190 â€Å"MM†, 59 â€Å"MMM†, and 16 â€Å"5M† Migros-branded stores and of 177 â€Å"Tansas† and 13 â€Å"Macrocenter† stores, its international footprint consisted of 23 Ramstores in Kazakhstan and another 5 in Macedonia. ( See Figure 14,15 ; Breakdown of Net Sales Area by Store Brands of MH Group) Distribution of Dividend According to latest data from the company’s official web-site, at the company’s Annual General Meeting held on May 20, 2010, it was decided to distribute a gross cash dividend of TL 195,833,000 to the shares representing TL 178,030,000 capital and the dividend disbursement is to start on May 28, 2010. On July 30th, 2009, it was decided to distribute the dividend of the free reserves after setting aside the reserves required by law to the share certificates representing the capital of TRY 178,030,000 and to use TRY 2,492,420,000 from this source for the distribution of gross cash dividends. See Table 2; Structure of Migros’s Shareholders) * Growth Strategy: The company increased its total store number to 745 in 2011. (See Table 3) and 2012, they increased the stores to 874 by opening 142 new stores. The company is planning to open 100 new stores in 2013. It is expected that the company will maintain rapid growth and increasing operation profitability in 2013 by focusing on its main operations. In addition to this, in 2013, it is estimated that the company will have 13% sales growth in year basis and 6. 4% EBITDA margin. * The positive effect of selling of â€Å"SOK† on Profitability.After selling SOK Discount Stores, thanks to high margins of supermarket segment and improvements in operational manage ment and supply chain, Migros’s EBITDA margin increased in 2011. It increased from 5. 7% in 2011 to 6. 5% in 2011. While Migros leave the channel of low margin discount retailing that is in intense competition, it will increase its penetration in supermarket segment that it is the leader in. In the medium term, 6. 0%- 6. 5% is the sustainable margin level. It is expected that sale, partnership and the reunion debates of Migros and CarrefourSa in 2013 will close the sale after getting purchased the food by Makro. BC Partners’ expectation of selling the share of Migros, BC Partners (MH Retailing) which is %80,5 shareholder of Migros is a private equity company centered in London. In spite of the fact that it is expected that BC Partners will sell their quantum of Migros in between 2013-2014, there is no explanation about the time period. It is thought that, despite the aggressive growth strategies of Migros continue, the quantum sale in 2013 is highly possible. In the ca se of selling deal, it is possible to be made a call for minor shareholders. * Company’s Stock Returns in IMKB 100When we compare the Migros Stock Returns we can say that, the prices of each stocks are less than BIM’s stocks and their returns are above the IMKB 100 line. This situation makes company’s stocks profitable but at the same time it may mean a high risk for the investors ( See Figure 17; IMKB 100 vs. MIGROS Stocks) Analysis of Financial Ratios of BIM & MIGROS (See Tables 4,5,6) 1) Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio: This ratio is commonly used as an index for current financial position and used for measuring company’s ability to pay short-term debts and determining the company’s net working capital if it is enough or not.Generally it is expected to be 2,00. The ratio of 1 is also acceptable. When we look at both companies both of them may have some difficulties to pay their short-term liabilities. For the firms which has a high level of inven tory turnover ratio and receivable turnover ratio like Bim, they are able to pay their short-term debts easily. Quick Ratio: It is a more sensitive ratios than current ratio. It shows us the ability of firms to pay their short-term liabilities when they have no sales growth, when their sales stops. It is expected to be 1. The ratios of both firms are less than deal number so receivable accounts and cash cover short term liabilities and their abilities to pay are not good but at least both firms’ ratios are higher than industry ratio and this brings these 2 companies in a better position in terms of short-term debts. Cash Ratio: It is most sensitive liquidity ratio. Generally, this ratio is not expected to be under 0. 20. As both firms cash ratios are higher than industry ratio, it won’t difficulties for paying their debts in the condition of lack of sales and getting their receivables. Additionally, company is holding more cash than needed.Net Working Capital: If the v alue of networking capital is minus, this means company’s current liabilities are more than current assets. This is the main reason for the company which finance its current assets with current liabilities. This is the case for BIM. We can say that company might have done current assest investments. We can say that BIM has some problems in terms of liquidity. Migros has positive networking capital and it has no liquidity problem. 2) Leverage Ratios Total Debt Ratio: This ratio is expected to be under 50%. With 0. 64, 0. 63 and 0. 64 ratios according to three years, BIM has higher values than this ideal ratio.When we look at industry ratio, it is 2,00. This ratio tells us, foreign resources are used for financing assets by the rate of 0. 64. It shows that BIM can pay its debts by selling assets when the operation stopped. This is the same for Migros expect the year 2010. It has a very high ratio, even higher than the industry level which is 2,41. Debt to Equity Ratio: This rat io can be equal to 1 or higher than 1. If it is higher than 1, it means difficulties in paying debts and interests or if it is lower than 1, it means company finance their assets by using its equities. The industry ratio is 1. 3. By looking Migros’s DTE ratios, they mostly finance their assets by using their equities instead of using foreign resources and they will have no difficulties while paying their debts, liabilities in the future. But when we compare it with the industry which is almost 1, Migros will have less advantage in any crisis condition. In this case, Bim has a more advantageous position than Migros because its ratios are closer to industry ratio and ideal ratio. Long Term Debt: It is a normal ratio 0. 12 – 0. 16 in Turkey. The industry ratio is 1. 03. Migros’s ratios are 0. 47, 0. 44, 0. 49 orderly.Bim’s ratios are 0. 01, 0. 01, 0. 01 orderly. If this ratio is high, this increases interest burden, decreases dividends and as a result, it ca uses not to cover debt burden. Migros prefers long-term foreign resources rather than using their equities. Long Term Debt to Equity: Ideal ratio is 1. Migros’s ratios are 0. 64, 1. 85, 2. 26. Bim’s ratios are 0. 04, 0. 03, 0. 03 orderly. The industry ratio is 0. 84. For Bim with these ratios that are less than 1, it means that Bim’s equity is more than long term debts. It is valid for these three years. Times Interest Earned: This ratio should be more than 8.Higher value of times interest earned ratio is favorable meaning greater ability of a business to repay its interest and debt. Lower values are unfavorable. That means if a company cannot repay its interest and debt it may become in a difficult situation even it may go bankrupt. In general, times interest earned of 1. 5 or below is unsafe. 3) Efficiency Ratios Receivable Turnover: If a company has a low receivable turnover it means, that company has some important difficulties to collect their receivables a nd the collection policy of that company is not so good and this means that they are unnecessarily relax about sales on credit.When we compare Bim and Migros, Bim is a better position for collecting its receivables in a quicker way. Its ratios are even less than industry ratio. When we compare Bim with Migros, Bim really has a strong ability to get their sales and receivables and their portfolios include low-risk and trustful customers Average Collection Period: It can also be evaluated by comparison with the terms on which the firm sells its goods. For Bim, with the high value of this ratio, it may not have the ability to finance its own debts because of long-term collection.Migros has a shorter average collection period Inventory Turnover: It is the most important ratio in retailing sector and it measures company's efficiency in turning its inventory into sales. Its purpose is to measure the liquidity of the inventory. Migros has ratios 7. 43, 8. 52, 8. 47 orderly and Bim has rati os 16. 98, 19. 56, 20. 23. Industry average is 10. 61. Migros’s ratios are less than Bim’s and industry’s ratios so this is a signal signal of inefficiency, since inventory usually has a rate of return of zero. It also implies either poor sales or excess inventory.For Migros low turnover rate can indicate poor liquidity, possible overstocking, and obsolescence, but it may also reflect a planned inventory build up in the case of material shortages or in anticipation of rapidly rising prices. Bim has highest inventory turnover ratios over Migros and industry. It means that Bim is really strong in terms of sales and at the same time very effective to control its inventories. Its higher inventory turnover ratio also means better liquidity. Also its efficiency in managing their stocks were increased, their stocks are becoming sales revenues in a short time and their stock costs were decreased year by year.With this positive development, it has less financial resource s for their stocks as necessities and their competition force has increased by this activity. Average Days in Inventory: Generally, the lower (shorter) the DSI the better. Bim has lower Average Days in Inventory than Migros and industry. This means, Bim is doing good in the sector and it has a good position in industry competition. This is an indicator of good operating cycle of Bim. In this case, Migros is in a worse situation. Asset Turnover: Bim has higher asset turnover ratio than Migros and industry and it shows us Bim has much more effective sales than Migros.It is more successful than Migros in order to generate sales with fewer assets it has a higher turnover ratio which tells it is a good company because it is using its assets efficiently. Migros is not using its assets optimally. Total asset turnover ratio is a key driver of return on equity 4) Profitability Ratios A company’s stock price, in large part, is driven by the company’s ability to generate earnings . Therefore, it is useful for investors to analyze the profitability of a company before investing in it. One way to do this is by calculating and tracking various profit margins, which reflect how efficiently a company uses its resources.Gross Profit Margin: Due to higher sales volume of Bim, Bim has lower gross profit margin than both Migros and the industry and it means Profit Margin: It tells us about company’s profits and their different kinds of policies, strategies and decisions. When we look at Bim’s profit margins over the 3 years they are higher than Migros’s profit margin values and the industry average. It is the most advantageous one. Bim has a better position than Migros in the industry. It has a competitive advantage over Miigros. ROA: It shows us at what amount companies get returns from their investments.Bim has higher ROA than Migros and industry over 3 years. It has become really effective to use their assets in a profitable way. For Migros, i n 2011 the ratio became a minus value this means Migros lost its asset profitability and started to not to get any profit from their assets. ROE: Stockholders invest to get a return on their money, and this ratio tells how well they are doing in an accounting sense. It measures the performance of companies’ equities. Again for this ratio, Bim has a much better position. It has higher ratio than Migros and industry. But on the other hand, there has been a small ROE reduction for Bim over 3 years.For example in 2011, ROE is 0. 48 and this means that owners of Bim could get 10% income from their equity that they invest for Bim. Operating Profit Margin: With a higher ratio of Bim, it is more successful in generating from operating its business. It is more important than net profit margin because it measures the profit margin which companies gain from goods and services sales in companies’ main activity subjects. This ratio is higher than industry ratios which is really imp ortant especially for Bim’s investors. APPENDIX Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Table 1: Structure of BIM’s ShareholdersTable 2; Structure of Migros’s Shareholders Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Figure 13 Table 3; # of National and International Stores, Net Sales Area Figure 14 Figure 15 Figure 16 Figure 17 Table 4: Financial Ratios of Migros | 2009| 2010| 2011| 2010| | Migros| Migros| Migros| Industry| LEVERAGE RATIOS| Debt to equity| 2. 76| 3. 13| 3. 58| 1. 03| Total debt ratio| 0. 73| 2. 41| 0. 78| 2. 00| Long Term debt ratio| 0. 47| 0. 44| 0. 49| 0. 22| Long-term debt to equity ratio| 0. 64| 1. 85| 2. 26| 0. 84| Times Interest Earned| 1. 54| 1. 28| 1. 43| 22. 35|LIQUIDITY RATIOS| Current ratio| 1. 34| 1. 01| 1. 13| 0. 82| Quick ratio| 0. 94| 0. 58| 0. 70| 0. 45| Cash Ratios| 0. 88| 0. 55| 0. 66| 0. 32| Net Working Capital| 497,628| 27,363| 218,876| -31,682,086| EFFICIENCY RATIOS| Total asset turnover| 1. 01| 1. 14| 1. 04| 2. 08| Inventory turnover | 7. 34| 8. 52| 8. 47| 10. 61| Receivable turnover| 150. 11| 127. 5| 85. 64| 66. 25| Average collection period| 2. 43| 2. 86| 4. 26| 8. 80| Average days in Inventory| 49. 72| 42. 84| 43. 09| 38. 61| PROFITABILITY RATIOS| Gross profit margin| 0. 25| 0. 24| 0. 25| 0. 22| Net profit margin| 0. 01| 0. 006| -0. 02| 0. 02| Operating Profit Margin| 0. 01| 0. 03| 0. 04| 0. 01| Return on Asset| 0. 01| 0. 00| -0. 02| 0. 03| Return on Equity| 0. 07| 0. 03| -0. 13| 0. 11| Table 5:Financial Ratios of Bim | 2009| 2010| 2011| 2010| | Bim| Bim| Bim| Industry| LEVERAGE RATIOS| Debt to equity| 1. 83| 1. 74| 1. 81| 1. 03| Total debt ratio| 0. 64| 0. 63| 0. 64| 2. 00| Long-term debt ratio| 0. 01| 0. 01| 0. 01| 0. 22| Long-term debt to equity ratio| 0. 04| 0. 03| 0. 03| 0. 84| Times Interest Earned| 156. 8| 83. 67| 140. 6| 22. 35| LIQUIDITY RATIOS| Current ratio| 0. 88| 0. 95| 0. 98| 0. 82| Quick ratio| 0. 51| 0. 56| 0. 61| 0. 5| Cash Ratios| 0. 24| 0. 33| 0. 36| 0. 32| Net Working Capital| -80,986| -38,285| -18,386| -31,682,086| EFFICIENCY RATIOS| Total asset turnover| 4. 84| 4. 79| 4. 72| 2. 08| Inventory turnover | 16. 98| 19. 56| 20. 23| 10. 61| Receivable turnover| 32. 99| 34. 15| 30. 21| 66. 25| Average collection period| 11. 06| 10. 68| 12. 08| 8. 80| Average days in Inventory| 21. 4| 18. 66| 18. 04| 38. 61| PROFITABILITY RATIOS| Gross profit margin| 0. 17| 0. 16| 0. 16| 0. 22| Net profit margin| 0. 04| 0. 037| 0. 037| 0. 002| Operating Margin| 0. 04| 0. 04| 0. 04| 0. 01| Return on Asset| 0. 19| 0. 17| 0. 17| 0. 3| Return on Equity| 0. 54| 0. 49| 0. 48| 0. 11| Table 6: Financial ratios of Tesco Kipa, Carrefoursa, Migros, Bim, Industry, in 2010 2010| | Bim| Migros| Carrefoursa| Tesco Kipa| Industry| LEVERAGE RATIOS| Total Debt ratio| 0. 63| 2. 41| 0. 41| 0. 70| 1. 03| Debt to equity| 1. 74| 3. 13| 0. 71| 2. 43| 2. 00| Long-term debt ratio| 0. 01| 0. 44| 0. 02| 0. 42| 0. 22| Long-term debt equity ratio| 0. 03| 1. 85| 0. 04| 1. 45| 0. 84| Times interest earned| 84. 6| 1. 28| 1. 54| 2. 00| 22. 35| LIQUIDITY RATIOS| Net working capital| -38,285| 27,363| -126,853,307| 178,586| -31,682,086| Current ratio| 0. 8| 1. 01| 0. 81| 0. 59| 0. 82| Quick ratio| 0. 51| 0. 58| 0. 53| 0. 20| 0. 45| Cash Ratios| 0. 24| 0. 55| 0. 36| 0. 16| 0. 32| EFFICIENCY RATIOS| Total asset turnover| 4. 84| 1. 14| 1. 42| 0. 95| 2. 08| Inventory turnover | 16. 98| 8. 52| 10. 3| 6. 65| 10. 61| Receivable turnover| 32. 99| 127. 5| 21. 5| 83. 04| 66. 25| Average collection period| 11. 06| 2. 86| 16. 9| 4. 39| 8. 80| Average Days in Inventory| 21. 4| 42. 84| 35. 4| 54. 8| 38. 61| PROFITABILITY RATIOS| Gross profit margin| 0. 17| 0. 24| 0. 22| 0. 27| 0. 22| Net profit margin| 0. 04| 0. 006| -. 008| -0. 03| 0. 002| Operating Margin| 0. 4| 0. 03| -0. 005| -0. 002| 0. 01| Return on Asset| 0. 19| 0. 00| -0. 011| -0. 03| 0. 03| Return on Equity| 0. 54| 0. 03| -0. 02| -0. 11| 0. 11| | | REFERENCES * http://www. bim. com. tr/yatirimci-iliskileri. html * http:// www. migroskurumsal. com/Foreks. aspx? IcerikID=35 * http://tesco. kipa. com. tr/default. asp * http://www. carrefour. com. tr/Kurumsal/finansalsonuclar;jsessionid=b3a0da5ff5e79ee039b023b24ca0 * http://www. ampd. org/ * http://www. capital. com. tr/perakende-AltKategoriler/48. aspx * http://www. aaii. com/computerized-investing/article/profit-margin-analysis. pdf

Conspiracy Behind The Assassination of John Fitzgerald...

John Fitzgerald Kennedy, 46, President for 1,026 days, was assassinated on November 22, 1963 in Dallas Texas. He, his wife, Jackie, the Vice President and many others were in Dallas for a reelection campaign for the upcoming election in 1964 when the horrible incident happened. Sadly, there is no decent explanation of the assassination from the government – The Warren Report is a 26 Volume Report that claims that Lee Harvey Oswald is the lone assassin – I do not agree with this. The CIA was one branch of the government that was definitely a big thorn in Kennedy’s side, and he, a thorn in theirs. The Bay of Pigs Invasion was the spark that ignited the devastating fire! Crossfire by Jim Marrs (1989) explains that over fifteen-hundred†¦show more content†¦Peter Dale Scott tells us in his book Deep Politics and the Death of JFK (1993) that late in 1963 Kennedy had authorized the withdrawal of one-thousand U.S. troops from Vietnam – this was the first step towards total retreat from Vietnam, which he anticipated would happen by the end of 1965 (Scott 24). This incident added to the fire that was roaring underneath the CIA – something had to be done about Kennedy. The Mafia is also a key suspect in this assassination. Especially Carlos Marcello, who was the mob boss in New Orleans – he was deported because of Attorney General Robert Kennedy, President Kennedy’s brother (Sherer April 1991). Robert Kennedy focused much of his time on getting rid of organized crime, and he did a pretty good job. In the Web Site â€Å"Who Murdered JFK and Why?† Marcello was quoted saying that President Kennedy was like a dog and Bobby Kennedy was his tail. The dog will keep biting you if you only cut off its tail, but cut off the head and the dog will die, tail and all. I would say that’s a pretty good analogy of what happened. If President Kennedy were to die, then Robert Kennedy wouldn’t be able to keep going after the mob. Another Mafia boss, Santos Trafficante from Miami also made a ‘prediction’ about Kennedy’s death when he said â€Å"Kennedy’s not going to make it to the election. He’ s going to be hit (http://www.geocities.com/pentagon/9719/jfk.html).† Many major crime bossesShow MoreRelatedConspiracy Theories Related to the Assassination of John F. Kennedy1200 Words   |  5 PagesStates of America, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, was assassinated in Dallas, Texas. Lee Harvey Oswald was charged with the crime, but was shot and killed two days later by Jack Ruby before he could be taken to trial. The Warren Commission officially determined that Oswald was the lone assassin, however, this conclusion has not been accepted by many. 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